February 28, 2010
In the past Friday, we were very honored to represent our country, the People’s Republic of China, at the International Student Festival. But this was also an extremely awkward and uncomfortable, also unforgettable experience for all of us who had been to this festival. For myself, I was deeply irritated by the “Taiwan Nation” discourse that reeked the church hall all evening and was bitterly shocked by the outstanding performances of the Taiwan students that totally overshadowed us: compared to us, these students are more passionate, more devoted, and more willing to demonstrate and represent themselves in a highly positive way. Their confidence, commitment, and their attention to all the details proved them to be the winner of the night. On the contrary, I strongly felt that there was more that we could do and improve, but we didn’t devote that much. We’ve lost the best chance to promote our country and send the message that we’re a rising and thriving nation to all the students present in the event. I very much regret all these imperfect things and feel sad to my core.
But the story also teaches us something very important: apart from declaring every day that “Taiwan is part of our country and we should reunite”, what else have we done? The international image of Taiwan is obviously better than ours; their people more engaged in exchanges with foreign countries; their political transparency and earnest pursuits of liberal democracy inspire many and gain respects from more. They are not only talking to the world that “Taiwan is an independent country”, but also displaying a very positive image of themselves that successfully attract foreign supports. While China, in sharp contrast to Taiwan, is notoriously disliked by many. Therefore, it’s even harder for China to “reunite” a “country” that is considered much more developed and democratized.
What’s so important of Taiwan
For China, Taiwan is a “face issue”, “blood-tie issue”, and strategic issue. If China lost Taiwan, then the so-called “rebellion provinces” Tibet and Xinjiang will go independent someday because Taiwan’s independent gave them hope and model. If China and Taiwan became two countries, the situation would be like the split of North and South Korea, which left only complications and mutual verbal abuses. And most important, if China lost Taiwan, the strategic security of China would be under grave threat. With the close relationship between Taiwan and its strong supporter America, China may face a besieged situation by the alliance of Taiwan and America.
For the US, Taiwan is a “democracy issue” and also a “face issue” and strategic issue. Taiwan serves as a perfect model for the US to promote its democracy: under pressure by “rogue state” China, with strong pursuit of democracy, and with dreams to build a brand new life for its own people. If the US failed to support Taiwan, the US will also lose face in front of his followers and lost a valuable bargaining price with China. For the US, using South Korea-Japan-Taiwan-Philippines to besiege China strategically and balance China with a chandelier power structure, multi-polar strains, is also a wise step to maintain its own weight in East Asia.
How would the “clash scenario” be like and the consequence
So what if the worst happened? China and the US go to war for Taiwan? Some native Taiwanese responded to the question as follows,
"It’s totally insane to go to war with mainland China. Even if the US supports us, what will the things be like? We can defend ourselves from mainland invasions for two weeks before the US armies arrive to help us. But what will Taiwan look like after two weeks? It would be ruins after ruins. People are killed, the cities destroyed, the culture damaged, and the hope crashed. Such an “independence” cost us too much to afford! "
What China and the US will look like? It would be a great chance for the two world powers to display and consume their 50-year accumulations of weapons, technologies, and human resources and maybe a chance to test some newly-invented nuclear bombs that will wipe everything on the earth out in a few seconds. China is not Iraq or Iran. China has a large population and a lot of natural resources. China has their vital face to defend. China has a tradition of “ren min zhan zheng (mass people’s war strategy)” to devastate a big and hasty power like Japan. The main battle field will primarily be at Taiwan island and Taiwan Strait, then the US army (or maybe with its alliance?) will head towards mainland China to burn cities down along the east coast. Then China gets a good excuse to fly bombs to the US. Hopefully by then, the US can protect them intact and still can sell McDonald’s, iPod, Pizza Hut, and F&A to China.
Does this scenario, still unfinished, look nasty? No one will vote for it.
How to resolve this controversial issue
Taiwan is the critical issue that neither the USA nor PRC would make compromise on. And for the Taiwanese themselves, they would rather be independent, with a miserable Hong Kong as a bad lesson for them. So it seems that there’s no way that China and the US will reach any agreements on this issue. The only thing that both sides can do for present is to procrastinate, to avoid, and to have frequently but still controllable frictions about Taiwan.
However, time will change everything and point out a way. Currently political leaders will die out in another generation’s time; countries, especially China, will further evolve or revolve in the next couple of generations, and people’s mind will probably change. By that time, the US might lose its role as world leader and gradually retreat from the complication of Asia. As long as the heat of Taiwan is still under control, things will be fine. After all, people still need to import and export, eat and dress, sleep and work, etc.
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